Value Betting System – Another Bet Strategy. Part 1
From the name of this strategy you can understand that the sense of this system is to bet on something that hasn’t got enough value from the book-maker. In other words it’s a game on the higher coefficients.
Theoretically everything is very simple: you try to compare your degree of the credibility of the event with the book-maker’s coefficient. And if you see that comparing with your mark the book-maker’s is higher, it means he undervalued the event, the object for the Value Betting (named the Value) is found!
Mathematically the checking if this event is the value can be checked with this formula:
Where K – it’s the book-maker’s coefficient, and the P – it’s your mark usually the number from 0 to 1.
Let’s examine everything on the example:
Let’s in the match Spartacus – the Soviet’s wings the coefficient on the winning of the guests 4.50. According to your mark from the four matches in the Moscow against the Spartacus – even one will be won while all the same conditions, that means you value the winning of the Samara’s team as 0.25. Let’s check: 4.50 х 0.25 = 1.125 > 1! So the bet on the winning of the Wings will be the betting in this case.
The conception of the Value Betting is different enough from other kind of the stakes.
Here, at first you shouldn’t think about the collection of the statistical data theoretically, about the enemies also, think about the last news about the teams and so on – it is simply mathematical game (here I can note, that of course to win something you need to value the teams’ chances, so you need to know something about them) which as a theory guarantees you a great profit while a long game.
For this you need only to value the possible results of the matches right. However, as we’ve already examined on this site the coefficients can’t give the real imagination about the positions and the strength, that’s why you can, and always will have a little difference in your marks.
And the second point is that you do not have to worry about the silliness of your stake, if it happens sometimes. One more example: the bet on that the next card which will be taken out of the deck will be ace clubs. The “usual” player wouldn’t like to bet on it, I think: too little chances.
But if you play Value Betting you should check the coefficients. And if you find out that the coefficient is 60, it is your value object. For real the credibility that the ace clubs would be taken out of the deck is 1/52= 0.0192. Let’s check: 60 х 0.0192 = 1.152 > 1! And if you do 1000 stakes on this event with the coefficients, accepted the criteria of the value betting you’ll get the profit.