Value Betting – New Betting Approach. Part 2
The first part about this strategy is here:
Value Betting System – Another Bet Strategy. Part 1
The coefficient, fitting to the given event, where we’ll use the strategy shouldn’t be very high: the main is that the criterion was made, and if it is for the coefficient 1.50 it means you can bet on this event. But the bigger is the coefficient, the bigger influence makes the error of the determining of the credibility of the event.
To say truthfully for the coefficient 5.0 the relative error in the determining of the mark 10% gives the absolute mistake not less than 0.0200 (because concerning with the criterion, the credibility for the value betting with the given coefficient can’t be 0.20 and for the coefficient 1.50 this relative mistake gives the absolute not less than 0.0667, it means in the 3.3333 times more (the same the relation of the coefficients give).
We can say with the sureness that the coefficients that are less than 2.0 practically never suit the value betting: the book-makers usually never make the higher coefficients lower (such coefficients are usually given on the winning of the favorite and they are usually lower). But the high coefficients suit very often. In the other words the game against the favorite is the real value betting.
The second task after the determining of the objects of the value betting is the determining of the stakes’ sizes.
The best idea here can be using of the fixed size of the stake (for example 10$ on each suiting for the criterion event). But if you are sure that you can determine the marks of the credibility of the result very exactly, you can use the Kelly Criterion, you only have to take the percent not from the present, but from the first bank. In this case it’s better not to value the credibility, than value more. The progressive financial strategies here can be used in the system of the “going after” with rather big coefficients (when the sum of the stake increases a little with the increasing of the number of the iterations).
Remember that the betting value is the system optimized for the long-time game, it means that in the most of the cases you won’t get quick income. And if you value the credibility of the events wrongly, if you value them so wrong that you often choose the events which completely don’t suit (it is pity but you can check only having done 500 stakes and having looked the balance) your game leads to the crash. That’s why you’d better try a little on a shit of paper and then only with real money.